The 2024 theme of consumer resilience showed no sign of waning in November. According to Bank of America aggregated credit and debit card data, spending per household was up 0.6% year-over-year (YoY). Moreover, spending on holiday items in the two weeks around Thanksgiving was 6.1% higher this year compared to 2023’s holiday period.
Travel has been another strong theme this year. Bank of America card data shows gasoline transactions, up 2% YoY, rose over the Thanksgiving period, indicating plenty of road trips. However, the total gas spend amount was down 4% YoY due to falling gas prices, which provided a boost to consumers’ wallets. Additionally, buoyant air travel was supported by TSA checkpoint data.
But do consumers have enough firepower to keep spending as we enter 2025? Robust Bank of America internal deposit data on after-tax wage growth suggests they might. At the same time, while ‘dry powder’ in the form of savings buffers or spending on credit cards may be diminished, it’s not exhausted, in our view.
