Let’s make a deal…Tariffs fueling the media hype and fooling nearly every economic expert on Wall Street. According to Goldman, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Merril Lynch, etc., etc., “America was headed for a recession.” What does it mean – General George Patton once said, “If everybody is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.” The markets are always looking for a reason to move. It could be valuations, earning reports, shift in policy, and often sentiment driven by fear of missing out (FOMO) or plain old fashion fear mongering are just a few examples. It was just over a month ago we saw the media report a false story sending the markets skyrocketing one minute and collapsing the next. After a month of media backfires and lack of basic economic understanding, we are right back where we started. The traditional media like CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC and others have still not figured it out. Winston Churchill famously said, “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” “The courage to continue that counts.” Don’t give up on your future because fear mongers scare you out of the markets or stomp on your dreams. Remember you are either a doer or a thinker. And while there will be mistakes it is the lessons learned from doing that fuel the fire of innovation and determination. Sallie Krawcheck once said, “If you’re not making some notable mistakes along the way, you’re certainly not taking enough business and career chances.” Budget impasse…Republicans are at an impasse as many are hooked on crack just like their Democratic colleagues. Several deficit hawks are holding up the budget as spending has skyrocketed under previous administrations and justified by the Fed artificially keeping rates low, “fear of too big to fail”, and most recently the “pandemic”. What does it mean – In 2020 we saw the Federal Budget explode due to the Chinese Wuhan Virus also known as COVID. Congress allocated additional funds that increased the spending in 2020 from roughly $5.3 trillion to over $7.1 trillion. Yet now that we have recovered from the Wuhan virus for nearly three years according to almost all economic data, like Biden, Congress has been missing at the switch for the last three years and allowed the unelected bureaucrats to run wild with the American Taxpayers check book. In Ecclesiastes (1:9) King Saul said it best, “there is nothing new under the sun”. He pointed out human nature has not changed for over 5,000 years. Today is no exception. As for the American experience, the last 50 years is no different. Take any two-, three-, five- or ten-year period and America continues to expand and grow revenues to the treasury through taxes as consistently as our leaders find more reasons to increase government dependency. As revenue continues to go up, spending on social programs continues to increase at an unsustainable rate, far faster than revenues are growing. Like a heroin addict, giving an elected or unelected official more supply of the drug they are addicted to, the worse they get. It is why giving needles to drug addicts is destroying California, specifically San Francisco, LA, and other drug sanctuary states and cities. The difference in State capitals and Washington DC the drug of choice is the American Taxpayers ability to put up with their nonsense. Or better said, our willingness to trade our individual liberties and economic and personal freedom for a perceived promise that government will make your life better and cost you nothing. Reality check, your elected officials cannot legislate your happiness or economic security without wealth redistribution. But they can protect the constitution that does protect those rights and your opportunity to pursue your dreams.
